Survivor 51 / Field manual
The premiere is for meeting the cast. Nobody makes picks and nothing in it scores — not the vote-out, not the winner, nothing.
Picks open with episode 2, which gives everyone a full week to sign up. Whoever goes home in the premiere is simply off the board before you pick.
After the premiere, you make your first set of picks: who wins, the 3 castaways you think make the final tribal, and the 8 you think end up on the jury.
Every episode after that, you predict a few things about the episode coming up — and you can change any of your winner, Final 3 or jury picks, or leave them exactly as they are. Standing pat is a perfectly good move.
Earlier weeks are worth more than later ones, because calling the winner while twenty castaways are still in is a much harder read than calling it at final five. So a pick you got right early and held all season is worth far more than the same pick made once it's obvious.
A wrong pick and an empty slot both score zero, so there is never a reason to leave one blank — fill every slot, even when you are guessing.
| Pick | Slots | Pays if your castaway… | Season max |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | 1 | wins the season | 96 pts |
| Final 3 | 3 | reaches the final tribal — win or lose | 48 each · 144 total |
| Jury | 8 | ends up on the jury | 20 each · 160 total |
Your winner must be one of your Final 3 — pick three, star one. Jury picks can't overlap your Final 3.
| Episode | Winner | Final 3 (each) | Jury (each) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14 | 7 | 5 |
| 3 | 13 | 7 | 5 |
| 4Now | 12 | 6 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | 6 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | 5 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | 5 | — |
| 8 | 7 | 4 | — |
| 9 | 6 | 3 | — |
| 10 | 6 | 2 | — |
| 11 | 5 | 2 | — |
| 12 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 13 | 2 | — | — |
Get your picks right in the first week and never touch them, and you score exactly what they would have scored under the old preseason rules — the option to change your mind was added, nothing was taken away.
Once the merge airs, your jury picks lock for the rest of the season — by then almost everyone left makes the jury, so there is nothing left to predict. What you already had riding on those picks still pays out if they make the jury.
| Guess | Points |
|---|---|
| Who gets voted out | 4 pts |
| Who said the episode quote | 4 pts |
| Commissioner questions | Varies — shown on the question |
These are about the episode coming up. They reset every week and are scored on their own — they have nothing to do with your winner, Final 3 or jury picks.
Double eliminations: when two castaways go home in one episode, naming either one scores the point. The two-hour premiere makes this possible from episode 1.
Leaving without a vote: a castaway who is medically evacuated, quits or is removed wasn't voted out, so naming them scores nothing. If someone is also voted out that episode, naming that person still scores.
Some commissioner questions don't wait for the episode to end — something like “who is the next castaway sent to Exile?” Answer it with that week's picks. Your answer locks when that episode airs and stays locked until it happens.
It pays in whichever episode it happens, however many weeks later. Every open-ended question offers Nobody: if it never happens, Nobody pays at the finale.
Your jury picks never earn bonuses, and neither does a castaway you have not picked. These pay as soon as the commissioner enters results — they do not wait on how the season ends.
| Event | Points |
|---|---|
| Finds an idol | +20 pts |
| Plays an idol correctly | +20 pts |
| Finds an advantage | +8 pts |
| Uses an advantage | +8 pts |
| Wins individual immunity | +4 pts |
| Plays a successful shot in the dark | +20 pts |
| Voted out holding an unplayed idol | -12 pts |
| Voted out holding an unplayed advantage | -4 pts |
This makes your Final 3 a real decision: you could slot a known idol-hunter instead of someone you actually think makes it. Usually not worth it — a correct Final 3 pick held all season beats most bonus hauls.
At the finale, every jury vote cast for the castaway in your winner slot earns +4 pts.
There is no late penalty and no catch-up formula. If you join in week 4, you simply held no picks before then. Everything from week 4 on is worth exactly what it is worth to everyone else.
The commissioner can correct any score, and every correction is recorded with a note explaining it. Corrections never change your picks — they sit on top of the scoring and are visible in your history.